Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.
The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:
I can't fault someone for looking at the worst case scenario. It's what emergency managers are paid to do. But there's a difference between saying "This is the worst cases scenario", and "This is what is going to happen no matter what."
Can someone tell me why small towns with no Kung Flu cases are shut down? Can we open up Cashton, Wisconsin? I understand that New York is a basket case of virus vectors, but Worley, Idaho is not New York.
Why are we using numbers from a virus vector hot spot to shut down all the country?
"Never let a crisis go to waste, Comrade. Manufacture one if need be through fear mongering using skewed data, partial information and wildly presumptive guesses based on no actual facts."
ReplyDeleteExcerpt from the DNC's "Candidate's Guide to Wrecking the Country in Five Easy Steps" The only thing missing here is some teen-aged "medical expert" from some obscure place.
And the Second Civil War gets one step closer. Those fucking bastards.
ReplyDeleteThis whole situation has become surreal, Dave. At least we'll be hitting some 60° days next week so I can back outside with my pruning saw before I go bonkers.
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